国際ジャーナルへの論文掲載情報

Author: Masasi Hattori（服部 雅史）

Title: Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics（三段論法推論における確率的表象：メンタルモデルとヒューリスティックの統合理論）

Journal(書誌情報）: Cognition, 157, 296-320

doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2016.09.009

論文URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2016.09.009

Abstract: This paper presents a new theory of syllogistic reasoning. The proposed model assumes there are probabilistic representations of given signature situations. Instead of conducting an exhaustive search, the model constructs an individual-based "logical" mental representation that expresses the most probable state of affairs, and derives a necessary conclusion that is not inconsistent with the model using heuristics based on informativeness. The model is a unification of previous influential models. Its descriptive validity has been evaluated against existing empirical data and two new experiments, and by qualitative analyses based on previous empirical findings, all of which supported the theory. The model's behavior is also consistent with findings in other areas, including working memory capacity. The results indicate that people assume the probabilities of all target events mentioned in a syllogism to be almost equal, which suggests links between syllogistic reasoning and other areas of cognition.

著者Contact先の email: hat[at]lt.ritsumei.ac.jp

日本語によるコメント:
三段論法推論の新理論を提案しています。確率的表象という新しい概念を導入し，三段論法推論の主要二理論（メンタルモデル理論と確率ヒューリスティックモデル）を統合した新しいモデルを構築します。このアプローチは，演繹推論と他の推論（帰納推論や確率判断など）を統合的に扱うことを可能にし，対称性推論（等確率性仮説）の一般性を明らかにします。

※この論文は，オープンアクセス化されています。